A hypothetical, educational model — not financial advice.
Assumption preset
Middle-of-the-road: 6% return, 2.5% inflation, average medical-cost trends, and mean life expectancy. Sets returns, inflation, medical trends, out-of-pocket costs and planning age together — you can still fine-tune any field below.
1 · The essentials
You & your household
We compute your birth year from your age. Enter a spouse age to switch the whole model to married filing jointly — Social Security, Medicare and taxes all adjust automatically.
$
Sets the annual target below (×12). You can also edit the annual figure directly.
$
b. 1966
Retiring now — assessing readiness today.
What you've saved
Enter actual dollar balances. Pre-tax and Roth are tracked separately for you and your spouse — this matters because SEPP (72t) rules and Roth conversions apply per account owner. Your taxable brokerage splits into already-taxed principal and unrealized capital gains.
$
Withdrawals taxed as ordinary income; RMDs apply from 75. Roth conversions come from this account.
$
If spouse retires under 55, SEPP (72t) draws come from this account only.
$
Qualified withdrawals are tax-free; no RMDs.
$
Qualified withdrawals are tax-free; no RMDs.
$
Brokerage / cash basis — spendable with no tax.
$
Realized proportionally on withdrawal, taxed at long-term rates.
$
Pays Medicare premiums tax-free from 65; any leftover is then an ordinary-income account.
Other income in retirement
Pensions, annuities, rental or part-time income, dividends — anything beyond Social Security and your accounts. Split out the portion that is qualified dividends or long-term capital gains (taxed at preferential rates).
$
$
The remainder is taxed as ordinary income.
Pre-filled with your target annual income above, held flat for every year. Edit any year to model a change in spending — for example, a lower figure once a mortgage is paid off, or a higher one for early "go-go" travel years.
2 · Social Security, taxes & assumptions
Social Security
We estimate each person's benefit from their own career earnings record. Claiming ages are optimized for your household (see the verdict) and can be overridden in Advanced assumptions. Expand the earnings records below to type actual SSA wages.
Your earnings & benefit
$
Seeds the earnings record (back-projected by wage growth).
First year of earnings — when your work history begins.
Optional override of the computed PIA (monthly, today's $).
Spouse's earnings & benefit
$
Seeds the spouse's earnings record (back-projected by wage growth).
First year of the spouse's earnings history.
Optional override of the spouse's computed PIA (monthly, today's $). Whoever earned less automatically gets their own benefit plus a spousal top-up toward 50% of the higher earner's PIA once both have filed (deemed-filing rules) — no need to choose.
Estimated earnings record (capped at the Social Security wage base). Edit any year; figures index to wage growth, feed the AIME → PIA benefit formula, and update everything.
Year
Age
Earnings (capped)
1988
22
1989
23
1990
24
1991
25
1992
26
1993
27
1994
28
1995
29
1996
30
1997
31
1998
32
1999
33
2000
34
2001
35
2002
36
2003
37
2004
38
2005
39
2006
40
2007
41
2008
42
2009
43
2010
44
2011
45
2012
46
2013
47
2014
48
2015
49
2016
50
2017
51
2018
52
2019
53
2020
54
2021
55
2022
56
2023
57
2024
58
2025
59
Taxes
Filing status: Single (set automatically by whether a spouse age is entered). Federal brackets, standard deduction, taxable-Social-Security, long-term capital-gains rates and the Net Investment Income Tax are all modeled. Bracket/IRMAA smoothing and Roth conversions are auto-optimized (see the verdict) and can be overridden under Advanced.
No state income tax — $0 modeled for all years.
%
For a state not listed (e.g. NY, NJ, OH): enter its approximate effective rate. Applied to all income including Social Security.
Withdrawal strategy
By default the model solves each year's withdrawals to hit your target income. Switch to a plain percentage rule to use a fixed withdrawal rate instead.
Solve withdrawals to deliver the target income above.
%
Year 1 = rate × starting balance, then grown by inflation. The classic “4% rule.”
Social Security claiming ages optimal: 66
By default these are set to the optimal claiming strategy — the ages that maximize the expected household benefit in today's dollars, weighting each future year by the probability of being alive to collect it (a male and a female survival curve from the SSA life table; the higher earner is also weighed for the survivor benefit). This doesn't depend on your plan-to age. Override either age below; click Use optimal to restore.
62–70. FRA is 67; delaying adds ~8%/yr to age 70.
62–70. A spousal benefit can't begin until the other spouse has filed.
%
Above inflation, for valuing future benefits. Default ≈ the 20-yr TIPS real yield (the safe asset given up to delay); a higher rate favors claiming earlier.
Re-applies the optimized claiming ages.
Tax strategy optimal: smoothing on, no conversions
These settings are auto-optimized for maximum ending portfolio value — the combination of smoothing, Roth conversions, and SEPP that leaves the most in your accounts at the end of the plan (which also maximizes what heirs receive). Override any setting manually; the optimizer re-runs every time inputs change.
When on, pre-tax draws are held under the first IRMAA cliff and the 24% bracket where possible, using already-taxed savings then Roth for the rest. Pre-tax is still drained first, just capped.
In low-income years, convert pre-tax → Roth up to the chosen bracket top. Builds Roth for later (tax-free, no RMDs, doesn't raise IRMAA when drawn). Conversion tax is paid from taxable savings.
When Off (default), the model never touches your pre-tax account before 59½ — funding any gap from Roth or savings instead. No distribution = no SEPP commitment. Turn On only if you plan to use 72(t) distributions as a deliberate income source before 59½.
When on, the model picks the combination that maximizes your ending portfolio (heirs' value). Toggle off to use your manual selections above.
Note: Optimal portfolio strategy ≠ optimal tax strategy. The combination with the lowest lifetime tax bill is not always the one with the largest portfolio — paying taxes earlier reduces compounding even if the total tax is similar. The optimizer prioritizes portfolio value; taxes are only a tiebreaker.
Health care: premiums & out-of-pocket
Retiring before Medicare (65) means buying ACA coverage. We model the unsubsidized benchmark Silver premium from your age(s), then apply the ACA Premium Tax Credit sliding scale based on your MAGI vs. the Federal Poverty Level. Above 400% FPL the subsidy phases out (current law cliff). From 65, Medicare carries its own premiums plus real out-of-pocket costs. All costs grow at the medical trend you set.
Children or other dependents covered on your marketplace plan. Adds to household size for FPL subsidy calculation (you + spouse counted automatically).
$
Unsubsidized benchmark Silver premium; computed from age & household size, override for your plan. The subsidy is applied on top of this automatically based on MAGI. Cannot be paid from an HSA tax-free.
$
Deductibles, copays & coinsurance on a marketplace plan (avg. deductible ~$3,800, OOP max $10,600; KFF 2026). Paid from HSA first.
$
Cost-sharing, dental/vision/hearing & uncovered care beyond Part B/D premiums (KFF: ~$6,460/yr incl. premiums). Paid from HSA first.
Drives Part B/D premiums. Part B has grown ~4.5%/yr over 20 yrs, ~5.8% recently (CMS); Trustees project ~5.5%.
Market & horizon assumptions
%
Nominal, blended across accounts.
%
Grows your target, SS COLA & brackets.
%
Career earnings growth above inflation (SSA's Average Wage Index trend, ≈1.1%). Lifts Social Security for future retirees while keeping the benefit in today's dollars. Set 0 to freeze wages in real terms.
Defaults to SSA life-table life expectancy for your age & sex; editable (≈50% live longer — consider 90+ to be safe).
%
Annual swing around the expected return — drives the volatility stress test in the verdict. ≈9% for a 30/70 portfolio, ≈12% for 60/40, ≈17% for all-stock; the assumption preset sets it to match its return (9% / 12% / 16%). Set 0 to disable.
The projection runs until whoever lives longer. After the first spouse passes (at the earlier plan-to age), the survivor files as single, keeps only the larger Social Security benefit, and has one-person Medicare & out-of-pocket costs.
3 · Year-by-year results
The verdict above is the summary; the full projection lives in three views — switch between them with the tabs: Accounts over time (balances, withdrawals & chart), the Social Security summary (each benefit, lifetime totals & the claiming-age comparison), and the Income & tax ledger (year-by-year income, tax, Medicare & spendable).
Monthly/annual is the steady-state benefit while both spouses are alive and have filed (including any spousal top-up); the lifetime columns sum benefits over your plan horizon (to age 81). The Expected lifetime SS card and the comparison below instead weight every year by survival probability — that's what drives the optimal claiming ages, so it doesn't move with the plan-to age. Career earnings on record is the sum of capped taxable wages — the basis for the AIME & PIA; edit it under the Social Security input section above. Optimal claiming ages: you 66 (see the verdict banner).
Claiming-age strategy comparison
Expected · survival-weighted weights each year's benefit by the probability you're alive to collect it (SSA life table) — the basis of the optimal pick, independent of your plan-to age. To plan age is the simpler sum to age 81 in today's dollars, shown for comparison.
Claim age
Monthly benefit
% of PIA
Starts (year)
To plan age (today's $)
Expected · survival-weighted
vs optimal
62
$2,549
70%
2028
$611,862
$440,322
−$2,961
63
$2,732
75%
2029
$622,788
$441,230
−$2,053
64
$2,914
80%
2030
$629,343
$439,244
−$4,039
65
$3,156
87%
2031
$643,912
$443,102
−$181
66
$3,399
93%
2032
$652,652
$443,283
★ optimal
67
$3,642
100%
2033
$655,566
$440,074
−$3,209
68
$3,933
108%
2034
$660,811
$439,182
−$4,101
69
$4,225
116%
2035
$659,062
$434,616
−$8,667
70
$4,516
124%
2036
$650,321
$426,718
−$16,565
optimal current selectionTotals count benefits from retirement (age 60) onward.
Lifetime figures are summed across the plan. Nominal = future dollars actually received (with COLA); today's $ = the same benefits expressed in today's purchasing power. Edit your earnings records under the Social Security input section above.
Lifetime federal+state tax
$219,478
over the plan
Lifetime Medicare + out-of-pocket
$295,370
premiums + cost-sharing
Lifetime pre-65 premiums
$98,235
ACA before Medicare
Lifetime SS collected
$916,778
Age
SS
Ret. draw
Sav. draw
Taxable SS
Fed tax
State tax
Medicare
OOP medical
Pre-65 health
Spendable
60
$0
$109,000
$18,844
$0
$16,560
$0
$0
$5,000
$16,284
$90,000
61
$0
$111,725
$20,873
$0
$17,173
$0
$0
$5,325
$17,849
$92,250
62
$0
$114,518
$23,082
$0
$17,824
$0
$0
$5,671
$19,550
$94,556
63
$0
$117,381
$25,486
$0
$18,512
$0
$0
$6,040
$21,395
$96,920
64
$0
$120,316
$27,838
$0
$19,222
$0
$0
$6,432
$23,156
$99,343
65
$0
$123,323
$6,723
$0
$17,515
$0
$5,224
$5,480
$0
$101,827
66
$47,305
$85,686
$0
$40,209
$17,270
$0
$5,512
$5,837
$0
$104,372
67
$48,487
$88,339
$0
$41,214
$17,814
$0
$5,815
$6,216
$0
$106,982
68
$49,700
$88,831
$0
$42,245
$17,882
$0
$4,372
$6,620
$0
$109,656
69
$50,942
$91,559
$0
$43,301
$18,441
$0
$4,612
$7,050
$0
$112,398
70
$52,216
$94,387
$0
$44,383
$19,020
$0
$4,866
$7,509
$0
$115,208
71
$53,521
$30,144
$57,787
$45,493
$10,233
$0
$5,134
$7,997
$0
$118,088
72
$54,859
$0
$85,147
$46,630
$5,034
$0
$5,416
$8,516
$0
$121,040
73
$56,231
$0
$88,088
$47,796
$5,468
$0
$5,714
$9,070
$0
$124,066
74
$57,636
$22,535
$64,194
$40,180
$1,510
$0
$6,028
$9,659
$0
$127,168
75
$59,077
$87,917
$0
$2,269
$0
$0
$6,360
$10,287
$0
$130,347
76
$60,554
$90,717
$0
$2,639
$0
$0
$6,710
$10,956
$0
$133,606
77
$62,068
$93,625
$0
$3,017
$0
$0
$7,079
$11,668
$0
$136,946
78
$63,620
$93,819
$0
$3,405
$0
$0
$7,468
$12,427
$0
$137,544
79
$65,210
$0
$0
$3,803
$0
$0
$7,879
$13,234
$0
$44,097
80
$66,840
$0
$0
$4,210
$0
$0
$8,312
$14,095
$0
$44,434
81
$68,511
$0
$0
$4,717
$0
$0
$8,769
$15,011
$0
$44,731
All figures nominal (future dollars). Spendable = total income − federal tax − state tax − Medicare − out-of-pocket medical − pre-65 premiums. Hover any Medicare cell for the IRMAA breakdown.
High sequence riskVulnerable to a bad market sequence
The plan is within ~10% of the goal. A sustainable income of about $83,977/yr lasts through age 81, versus your $90,000 target (savings would otherwise run dry near age 78). Stress-test caveat: once realistic market volatility is layered on, the plan funds the full target in only 29% of randomized paths — a poor run of early returns could break it. Read the steady-return result as conditional on calmer markets or a spending cushion.
$83,977
Sustainable income / yr
93%
of your target
age 78
savings depleted
Optimal Social Security: claim age 66 → about $443,283 expected lifetime in today's dollars (~$2,961 more than claiming at 62).Details
This maximizes the expected household benefit — each year weighted by the probability of being alive to collect it, from a male and a female survival curve (SSA life table), so it doesn't hinge on the single plan-to age. The higher earner is usually nudged to delay because a larger check also lifts the survivor benefit the longer-living spouse keeps; the lower earner may claim earlier. See the full claiming-age comparison ↗
Optimal tax strategy:bracket & IRMAA smoothing → about $195,219 lifetime taxes in today's dollars.Details
The optimizer picks bracket & IRMAA smoothing. The total covers income tax, IRMAA surcharges and heirs' tax, deflated to today's dollars. See the year-by-year tax ledger ↗
Overall decision (volatility-adjusted):not yet — funds the full target in only 29% of volatile market paths.Details
The steady-return verdict above reads borderline, but at 29% stress success the realistic call is not yet — the banner now reflects this. With 12% annual volatility around the 6.0% expected return, the plan funds the full target in 58 of 200 randomized market paths (29%) — unlikely to survive volatile markets. Ending balance in today's dollars: median $0, worst decile $0, best decile $544,290. In the failing paths, savings typically run dry around age 74. The verdict above assumes the same return every year; this adds sequence-of-returns risk. Here ≥80% keeps the verdict, 65–79% caps it at caution, and below 65% downgrades it.
How to pass the stress test: at 29% you're below the 80% line — a balanced mix — hold about $190,000 in cash, trim to about $82,000/yr and retire at 61.Details
Each item below independently lifts stress success to 80%+ using a single lever, fully; the last blends them so none is excessive:
💵Hold a cash reserve of about $560,000 (about 6.2 years of spending) outside the market — high-yield savings, money-market or short T-bills — and spend from it during down-market years instead of selling. It earns no market return, so the model holds it at roughly inflation; set it aside on top of the portfolio above, or carve it from it (then your growth sleeve shrinks, which the 0%-real treatment already reflects).
✂️Trim planned spending to about $67,000/yr (−$23,000, 26%). Even applying the cut only in down years — a "guardrails" rule — gets most of the way there while letting you spend more when markets cooperate.
🕒Retire at 64 — about 4 more years. The portfolio compounds longer and the drawdown is shorter; counting the extra saving you'd also do, the real cushion is bigger than this.
⚖️Or balance all three: hold about $190,000 in cash, trim to about $82,000/yr and retire at 61 — together they reach 80% with no single lever taken to an extreme (each is only about 34% of what it would take on its own).
Why these work: sequence-of-returns risk comes from selling assets while they're down early in retirement. A cash buffer, flexible spending, and a later start all reduce how much you must sell into a downturn. Delaying Social Security (toward 70) does the same by lifting your guaranteed, market-proof income floor. Amounts are reverse-engineered from the same 200 randomized market paths as the stress test above.
💾 Save / restoreNothing is saved automatically — Export downloads every input and all output tables as one CSV. Import a saved file to restore your inputs; or open it in Excel / Google Sheets.